Modelling Early Grade Education in Papua New Guinea

For several years, I worked for the World Bank analysing the early grade education outcomes in a number of different Pacific countries including Laos, Tonga and Papua New Guinea, amongst others. Recently, our earlier work in Papua New Guinea was published for the first time.

One of the more challenging things I did was model a difficult set of survey outcomes: reading amongst young children. You can see the reports here. Two of the most interesting relationships we observed were the importance of language for young children learning to read (Papua New Guinea has over 850 of them so this matters) and the role that both household and school environments play in literacy development.

At some point I will write a post about the choice between standard ordinary least squares regressions used in the field and the tobit models I (generally) prefer for this data. Understanding the theoretical difference between censored, truncated and continuous data isn’t the most difficult thing in the world, but understanding the practical difference between them can have a big impact on modelling outcomes.

Elasticity and Marginal Effects: Two Key Concepts

One of the critical parts of building a great model is using your understanding of the problem and context. Choosing an appropriate model type and deciding on appropriate features/variables to explore based on this information is critical.

The two key concepts of elasticity and marginal effects are fundamental to an economic understanding of model building. This is something that can be overlooked for practitioners not coming from that background. Neither concept is difficult or particularly obtuse.

This infographic came about because I had a group of talented economics students at the masters’ level who had no econometric background, by and large. In a crowded course, I don’t have much time to expand on my favourite things. This was my take on explaining the concepts quickly and simply.

Elasticity infographic

For those very new to the concept, this explanation here is simple. Alternatively, if you’re interested in non-constant marginal effects and ways they can be used, check out this discussion.


Data Analysis: Enough with the Questions Already

We’ve talked a lot about data analysis lately. First we asked questions. Then we asked more. Hopefully when you’re doing your own analyses you have your own questions to ask. But sooner or later, you need to stop asking questions and start answering them.

Ideally, you’d really like to write something that doesn’t leave the reader with a keyboard imprint across their forehead due to analysis-induced narcolepsy. That’s not always easy, but here are some thoughts.

Know your story.

Writing up data analysis shouldn’t be about listing means, standard deviations and some dodgy histograms. Yes, sometimes you need that stuff- but mostly what you need is a compelling narrative. What is the data saying to support your claims?

It doesn’t all need to be there. 

You worked out that tricky bit of code and did that really awesome piece of analysis that led you to ask questions and… sorry, no one cares. If it’s not a direct part of your story, it probably needs to be consigned to telling your nerd friends on twitter- at least they’ll understand what you’re talking about. But keep it out of the write up!

How is it relevant?

Data analysis is rarely the end in and of itself. How does your analysis support the rest of your project? Does it offer insight for modelling or forecasting? Does it offer insight for decision making? Make sure your reader knows why it’s worth reading.

Do you have an internal structure?

Data analysis is about translating complex numerical information into text. A clear and concise structure for your analysis makes life much easier for the reader.

If you’re staring at the keyboard wondering if checking every social media account you ever had since high school is a valid procrastination option: try starting with “three important things”. Then maybe add three more. Now you have a few things to say and can build from there.

Who are you writing for?

Academia, business, government, your culture, someone else’s, fellow geeks, students… all of these have different expectations around communication.  All of them are interested in different things. Try not to have a single approach for communicating analysis to different groups. Remember what’s important to you may not be important to your reader.

Those are just a few tips for writing up your analyses. As we’ve said before: it’s not a one-size-fits-all approach. But hopefully you won’t feel compelled to give a list of means, a correlation matrix and four dodgy histograms that fit in the space of a credit card. We can do better than that!

Data Analysis: More Questions

In our last post on data analysis, we asked a lot of questions. Data analysis isn’t a series of generic questions we can apply to every dataset we encounter, but it can be a helpful way to frame the beginning of your analysis. This post is, simply, some more questions to ask yourself if you’re having trouble getting started.

The terminology I use below (tall, dense and wide) is due to Francis Diebold. You can find his original post here and it’s well worth a read.

Remember, these generic questions aren’t a replacement for a thoughtful, strategic analysis. But maybe they will help you generate your own questions to ask your data.

Data analysis infographic

Data Analysis: Questions to Ask the First Time

Data analysis is one of the most under rated, but most important parts of data science/econometrics/statistics/whatever it is you do with data.

It’s not impressive when it’s done right because it’s like being impressed by a door handle: it is something that is both ubiquitous and obvious. But when you’re missing the doorhandles, you can’t open the door.

There are lots of guides to data analysis but fundamentally there is no one-size-fits-most approach that can be guaranteed to work for every data set. Data analysis is a series of open-ended questions to ask yourself.

If you’re new or coming to data science from a background that did not emphasise statistics or econometrics (or story telling with data in general), it can be hard to know which questions to ask.

I put together this guide to offer some insight into the kinds of questions I ask myself when examining my data for the first time. It’s not complete: work through this guide and you won’t have even started the analysis proper. This is just the first time you open your data, after all.

But by uncovering the answers to these questions, you’ll have a more efficient analysis process. You’ll also (hopefully) think of more questions to ask yourself.

Remember, this isn’t all the information you need to uncover: this is just a start! But hopefully it offers you a framework to think about your data the first time you open it. I’ll be back with some ideas for the second time you open your data later.

career timeline-2.